Team SCOAMF in panic mode? They should be…
Tomorrow Is the Time To Panic.
Another jobs figure is being released. Analysts guess it will be in the 133,000 to 150,000 jobs gained range, which, um, one dummy calls some kind of major improvement over last month’s 115,000.
These numbers are below the replacement rate, folks. More people enter the work force (or used to, anyway) in a month than this.
There may be some expectations-gaming here, as Ed highlights one analyst saying… brace for something horrid, like 54,000.
And it gets worse.
“Nonfarm payroll has been decelerating since the beginning of 2012,” William told CNBC.com. “The probability of an acceleration of that down move is high over the next two quarters.”
The data lost positive momentum after failing to hold above the 2011 high of 251,000, and has also remained beneath a multiyear ceiling of around 340,000. During January 2012 “the loss of upside momentum triggered a DeMark exhaustion signal,” he said.
An exhaustion signal usually indicates a reversal in the trend. The DeMark Indicators are a collection of sophisticated market-timing tools created by Tom DeMark over the course of nearly 40 years in the financial industry.
“The key level that everyone in the market should be focusing on [for nonfarm payrolls] is 54,000,” William added. “I think that over the multimonth period the probability favors that we test this area and maybe move into negative territory if it is confirmed.”
The funny thing is that the media is currently saying that analysts expect 133,000 or 150,000 jobs. But if the numbers fall short of that, they’ll suddenly start talking about “exceeding the 54,000 jobs predicted some.”